Joint Colloquium: IHPST & LOGIC and PHIL OF SCIENCE GROUP / Wendy Parker (University of Ohio)

Joint Colloquium of the IHPST and LOGIC and PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE GROUP

Wednesday 18 November, 4:10-5 p.m., Room VC323, Victoria College

Professor Wendy Parker, Department of Philosophy, University of Ohio

“What does it mean when climate models agree? Examining the significance
of robust predictions”

Abstract. Scientific investigation of climate change relies heavily on
computer simulation models. When various collections – or ensembles – of
these models are brought together for purposes of investigating future
climate, it sometimes happens that all of the simulations that they
produce indicate the truth of some interesting predictive hypothesis.
These robust findings are sometimes highlighted in scientific reports on
climate change, but what exactly is their significance? Are they
particularly trustworthy? This talk will identify circumstances under
which robust predictive modeling results – not just from climate models
but from scientific models in general – can take on special epistemic
significance and then consider whether those circumstances hold in the
context of present-day climate modeling.

Refreshments to follow in Room VC303.